In the Lexington Herald-Leader of 06 August, political commentator Ryan Alessi said: "Much is at stake for both Kentucky Republican officials. Fletcher is seeking another four-year term. And McConnell, who is up for re-election next year, risks facing a more powerful, strongly backed Democratic opponent in 2008 if that party takes control of the governor's office."
Obviously, much is at stake for both politicians, but there's life after office, especially in financial terms since former office-holders at both the gubernatorial and senatorial levels have unlimited opportunities to profit from their positions. Fletcher would be a shoo-in on the basis of his performance in office…sort of like Ned Breathitt, governor back in the 60s, who, at least in this opinion, did well in the last two years after not doing well in the first two years.
Voters are not dumb and by now have seen through the "Fletcher affair," an obvious attempt by Attorney General Stumbo to hurt the governor by taking on personally a matter that involved only misdemeanors and that should have been handled in an ethics committee or other agency set-up to settle personnel matters. Stumbo outdid himself via the conflict-of-interest route, when he had to drop all charges concerning the governor (real or imagined) in order to run for the second spot on a losing ticket. Opportunism is rarely carried to a level as low as that. Fletcher will look better and better as November approaches.
Alessi is probably wrong about McConnell. If Beshear is elected in November, McConnell will not suffer, not just because Kentucky democrats routinely send republicans to Congress, but because McConnell is too strong – the consummate politician, not the least important attribute of which is the ability to gain support and keep it. In financial terms alone, McConnell is away ahead of the game, and he defeated Beshear in 1996 to earn his third Senate term.
McConnell was first elected to the Senate in 1984. That year, he was the only Republican challenger in the country to defeat a Democrat incumbent, and the first Republican to win a statewide race in Kentucky since 1968. That was the culmination of the infamous "tracking dogs" campaign (Where's Dee [Senator Huddleston]?). The democrats owned the government and most of the courthouses, and legislation was crafted strictly in the democratic caucus, not on the floor of either legislative body. In other words, McConnell can take on a powerful, strongly backed democratic opponent.
Added to the picture now is the fact that McConnell is the Minority Leader in the Senate, and would be Majority Leader if Senator Lieberman would just change his registration from Independent to Republican. That won't happen, of course, but Kentuckians understand both the power of McConnell's office and the inestimable value of seniority. McConnell is the longest serving republican senator in Kentucky history. If the Senate should go republican in 2008, McConnell would be Majority Leader, notwithstanding the fact that he is the most powerful politician in Washington already – the consummate arm-twister and deal-maker, a la Henry Clay of old.
Fletcher hit a sore spot at Fancy Farm on the casino question, and hammered away at Beshear. Later, republican attorney general candidate Stan Lee broke out the statistics on what to expect if casinos are allowed in the state. Beshear made his case for more gambling (though the worst sort), but Lee's opponent, Jack Conway mostly introduced "You know what" as the term to be used in a speech in most every sentence and sometimes multiple times in the same sentence.
And so it goes.
Jim Clark
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