Tuesday, October 07, 2014

Dueling Polls

As predictable as night following day (or vice versa) in any election cycle is the dueling-polls syndrome. This is nowhere better seen than in Kentucky vis-a-vis the McConnell-Grimes senatorial race. The fear of Mitch McConnell by the Kentucky liberal establishment—at least as manipulated by the Lexington Herald-Leader, Louisville Courier-Journal and TV stations WKYT (Lexington) and WHAS (Louisville)—was seen in their partnership-for-polling-purposes- for-early-propagandizing in this election year.

These entities had something called the “Bluegrass Poll” ginned up by an outfit called SurveyUSA that virtually elected democrat Alison Grimes over McConnell in November even though the primary, in which both had competition, wasn't until May. SurveyUSA interviewed 1,200 adults with home phones and cell phones between January 30 and February 4, of whom 1,082 were registered to vote in the state with 404 being registered republicans, but with Primary questions asked only of them. Other questions were asked of all registered voters.

Why no Primary questions of democrats? Answer: these media activists eliminated the other three democrat candidates...the fix was in. Some 118 respondents were not even registered? Twice as many democrats as republicans were polled, the reason being obvious to even a fifth-grader. Kentucky votes republican in national elections even though democrats outnumber republicans in the state by 52%. The media (at least the newspapers) combining for this poll were/are arch-enemies of Mitch McConnell but haven't gotten him defeated since 1984.

Still feeling good after Fancy Farm, the media propagandists commissioned another “Bluegrass Poll” in late August but discovered to their horror that their own poll showed McConnell ahead by four points, at which point the media honchos and Grimes experienced desperation, hence a Mellman Poll hired by Grimes in early September that showed Grimes was ahead by two points—VOILA!—campaign saved, a six-point reversal in just two weeks. Kentucky minds are so changeable. During that same period, the nationally highly regarded Rasmussen polling had McConnell ahead by five points.

So...another poll was conducted by Mellman in September, with Grimes—you guessed it—beating McConnell one or two points maybe because of one of her ads, as if anyone pays attention to those million-dollar sinkholes. During a late September poll conducted by the New York Times and CBS (both McConnell haters), McConnell was ahead by six points, perhaps pulling away.

At this point, desperation set in at the Lexington and Louisville media-outlets-for-McConnell, so—you guessed it—another “Blue Grass” poll was conducted by the same outfit as before, SurveyUSA and—hold tight—Grimes came out ahead by two points, despite the highly respected national polls showing the opposite. This made for front-page banner headlines on 06 October in the Lexington Herald-Leader and rejoicing in TV-world, no doubt.

So, from 28 August until 06 October (about five weeks), Kentuckians, according to the polls (or at least the Bluegrass Poll), those fickle Kentuckians have changed their minds about two or three times, after changing their minds once between February and August. If that's not actually the case, one wonders how the Bluegrass and Mellman polls have been structured, since they differ wildly from the most reputable outfits in the nation, especially since they were hired by both the media-propagandists and Grimes herself, with all that Hollywood money.

Grimes will carry Louisville, Lexington and maybe the northern towns across from Cincinnati. Democrats tend to carry the heavily-populated areas where welfare reigns supreme. Republicans carry the counties between the coastal states but must face the huge differential in electoral votes occasioned by the populations of New York City, Chicago, Los Angeles and the like in national elections. Beyond the Bluegrass triangle referenced by Louisville, Lexington and Covington, Grimes is likely already toast. Folks don't change their minds that often, and it's a cinch that 90% of minds are already made up.

Grimes' albatross is Obama, and she's tried to neutralize that by calling herself a “Clinton Democrat.” That won't work, not least because Bill Clinton's reputation is in shreds and Hillary's compulsion to lie (think Benghazi) is a killer. When she said, “What difference does it make now,” she said it all. In addition, Kentuckians just hate being jerked around by such things as obviously bogus polling.

And so it goes.
Jim Clark

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